Application of Several Forecasting Method on Refined Sugar Production at PT. Perkebunan Nusantara X

Authors

  • Immanuel Damanik Program Studi Teknik Pertanian, Fakultas Teknologi Pertanian, Universitas Udayana. Kampus Bukit Jimbaran, Badung-Bali
  • Ida Bagus Putu Gunadya Program Studi Teknik Pertanian, Fakultas Teknologi Pertanian, Universitas Udayana. Kampus Bukit Jimbaran, Badung-Bali
  • I Gusti Ngurah Apriadi Aviantara Program Studi Teknik Pertanian, Fakultas Teknologi Pertanian, Universitas Udayana. Kampus Bukit Jimbaran, Badung-Bali

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24843/JBETA.2022.v10.i01.p03

Keywords:

forecasting models, moving avarage, double exponential smoothing, accuracy test

Abstract

Forecasting is the process of making a future prediction based on the present and past data using trend analysis. The purpose of this study was(1) to know historical pattern of refined sugar production, (2) to know what are the forecasting models that be used for prediction, (3) to get the best forecasting model by using accuracy test. This study use secondary data from PT Perkebunan Nusantara X and processing data by using Microsoft Excel. Based on analysis results exponential smoothing by using α = 0.8 is the best model. As comparison by using moving average with 2 period and double exponential smoothing with α = 0.6. The accuracy test of exponential smoothing α = 0.8 showing with value MAD = 2, MSE = 9, and MAPE = 36%. On validity test of forecasting models, exponential smoothing had showing value MAD = 1,025, MSE = 2,113,927, MAPE = 22%. Results of forecasting production with 6 period on the future is R1 = 5,106, R2 =5,047, R3 = 5,035, R4 = 5,032, R5 = 5,032, R6 = 5,032.

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Published

2022-04-29

How to Cite

Damanik , I., Gunadya , I. B. P., & Aviantara , I. G. N. A. (2022). Application of Several Forecasting Method on Refined Sugar Production at PT. Perkebunan Nusantara X. Jurnal BETA (Biosistem Dan Teknik Pertanian), 10(1), 21–33. https://doi.org/10.24843/JBETA.2022.v10.i01.p03

Issue

Vol. 10 No. 1 (2022): April

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