PENERAPAN BIRTH-AND-DEATH PROCESS PADA KASUS TERINFEKSI DAN KEMATIAN COVID-19 KALIMANTAN TIMUR JANUARI 2021

Abstract

The birth and death process is a powerful Markov process for modeling population changes due to two events: births and deaths. In this study, the birth and death events are described as the number of new infections and deaths due to the Covid-19 virus in East Kalimantan for the period 1–31 January 2021. In this study, the birth and death processes are used to analyze the data with a focus on estimating the parameters of the birth rate and death rate and observing the ratio between the two parameters. The results show that the estimated parameter values ​​for the birth (λ) and death (µ) are 0.0139132 and 0.00024230, respectively, and the ratio of the two parameters is 57.42. This indicates that the birth and death rates in this case are still in the supercritical category. This means that without significant external interventions such as emergency PPKM (restrictions on community activities), mass vaccination, or drastic increases in testing and tracing capacity, the number of active cases is likely to increase indefinitely in the long term.