Production Forecasting Analysis of Cavendish Banana Harvest Using Exponential Smoothingto Product Sunpride and Bali Fresh in PT. Nusantara Segar Abadi Bali

Authors

  • I Nyoman Galih Oki Putra
  • I Gusti Ngurah Apriadi
  • Ida Bagus Putu Gunadnya

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24843/JBETA.2024.v12.i02.p04

Keywords:

forecasting, Single Exponential Smoothing, Triple Exponential Smoothing

Abstract

PT. Nusantara Segar Abadi Bali was established in 2019. PT. NSA BALI has 2 products produced from cavendish bananas, namely Cavendish Sunpride Banana and Cavendish Bali Fresh Banana. Supply from the harvest is expected to meet the monthly production target of PT. NSA BALI. This r esearch is conducted to get the right forecas ting method to meet the needs of production. In this study using two modeling methods, namely Single Exponential Smoothing and Triple Exponential Smoothing methods. For this study, the data used is secondary data, namely data from January 2019 to Juli 2023 . In this study using model validation, namely MAD, MSE and MAPE. It is known that this study obtained forecasting validation results, namely MAD 17%, MSE 58% MAPE 24% in the Single Exponential Smoothing method, while the Triple Exponential Smoothing metho d obtained the number of forecasting validations, namely MAD 43%, MSE 11% MAPE 54%. In the Single Exponential Smoothing method, the number of forecasts can meet the production target in November 2022 to Juli 2023, while in the Triple Exponential Smoothing method the time that can meet the number of production targets is in September 2022 to Juli 2023

References

Andini, T. D., & Auristandi, P. (2016). Peramalan Jumlah Stok Alat Tulis Kantor di UD Achmad Jaya Menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing. Jurnal Ilmiah Teknologi Informasi Asia, 10(1), 1–10.

Andriani, N., Wahyuningsih, S., & Siringoringo, M. (2022). Application of Double Exponential Smoothing Holt and Triple Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winter with Golden Section Optimization to Forecast Export Value of East Borneo Province. Jurnal Matematika, Statistika Dan Komputasi, 18(3), 475–483. https://doi.org/10.20956/j.v18i3.1749

Badan Pusat Statistic. (2022). Produksi Buah-buahan Pisang, Rambutan, Salak Menurut Kabupaten/Kota dan Jenis Tanaman di Provinsi Jawa Timur (kwintal), 2021 dan 2022.

Biri, R., Langi, Y. A. ., & Paendong, M. S. (2013). Penggunaan Metode Smoothing Eksponensial Dalam Meramal Pergerakan Inflasi Kota Palu. Jurnal Ilmiah Sains, 13(1), 68. https://doi.org/10.35799/jis.13.1.2013.2035

Damanik, I., Gunadnya, I. B. P., & Aviantara, I. G. N. A. (2021). Penggunaan Beberapa Model Peramalan (Forecasting) pada Produksi Gula Kristal Putih di PT. Perkebunan Nusantara X. Jurnal BETA (Biosistem Dan Teknik Pertanian), 10(1), 21. https://doi.org/10.24843/jbeta.2022.v10.i01.p03

Drs. H. Hendro Sunarjono. (2013). Berkebun 26 Jenis Tanaman Buah. Penebar Swadaya Grup. https://books.google.co.id/books?id=cuG1CAAAQBAJ&printsec=copyright&hl=id#v=onepage&q&f=false

FAO. (2022). Banana facts and figures. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

Gede, I., Juliawan, N., Tika, W., Ketut, G., & 020004000600080001000012000140001600018000Panen ActualForecastProduksi

240Arthawan, A. (2022). Optimizing the Irrigation Water Needs of Banana Plants at PT. Nusantara Segar Abadi Jembrana-Bali. Jurnal Beta (Biosistem Dan Teknik Pertanian), 10(2). http://ojs.unud.ac.id/index.php/beta

Jay H. Heizer, & Barry Render. (2013). Operations Management. Pearson Education Limited,. https://www.pearsonhighered.com/assets/preface/0/1/3/5/0135173620.pdf

Khair, U., Fahmi, H., Hakim, S. Al, & Rahim, R. (2017). Forecasting Error Calculation with Mean Absolute Deviation and Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 930(1). https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/930/1/012002

Kushartini, D., & Almahdy, I. (2016). Sistem Persediaan Bahan Baku Produk Dispersant Di Industri Kimia. Jurnal PASTI (Penelitian Dan Aplikasi Sistem Dan Teknik Industri), X(2), 217–234.

Lusiana, A., & Yuliarty, P. (2020). PENERAPAN METODE PERAMALAN (FORECASTING) PADA PERMINTAAN ATAP di PT X. Industri Inovatif : Jurnal Teknik Industri, 10(1), 11–20. https://doi.org/10.36040/industri.v10i1.2530

Maricar, M. A. (2019). Analisa Perbandingan Nilai Akurasi Moving Average dan Exponential Smoothing untuk Sistem Peramalan Pendapatan pada Perusahaan XYZ. Jurnal Sistem Dan Informatika, 13(2), 36–45.

Ngabidin, Z., Sanwidi, A., & Arini, E. R. (2023). Implementasi Metode Double Exponential Smoothing Brown Untuk Meramalkan Jumlah Penduduk Miskin. Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains Dan Teknologi, 11(2), 328–338. https://doi.org/10.37905/euler.v11i2.23054

Rob J Hyndman, & George Athanasopoulos. (2021). Forecasting: Principles and Practice. OTexts.Com/Fpp3. https://otexts.com/fpp3/.

Sofjan Assauri. (1984). TEKNIK DAN METODE PERAMALAN PENERAPANNYA DALAM EKONOMI DAN DUNIA USAHA. Lembaga Penerbit Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Indonesia, 1.

Sungkawa, I., & Megasari, R. T. (2011). Penerapan Ukuran Ketepatan Nilai Ramalan Data Deret Waktu dalam Seleksi Model Peramalan Volume Penjualan PT Satriamandiri Citramulia. ComTech: Computer, Mathematics and Engineering Applications, 2(2), 636. https://doi.org/10.21512/comtech.v2i2.2813

Valentine, Sutedja, A. M., & Marsono, Y. (2015). Pengaruh konsentrasi Na-CMC (Natrium-Carboxymethyl Cellulose) terhadap karakteristik cookies tepung pisang kepok putih (Musa paradisiaca L.) pregelatinasi. Jurnal Agroteknologi, 09(02), 93–101.

Wardah, S., & Iskandar, I. (2017). ANALISIS PERAMALAN PENJUALAN PRODUK KERIPIK PISANG KEMASAN BUNGKUS (Studi Kasus : Home Industry Arwana Food Tembilahan). J@ti Undip : Jurnal Teknik Industri, 11(3), 135. https://doi.org/10.14710/jati.11.3.135-142

Downloads

Published

2026-02-03

How to Cite

Putra, I. N. G. O., Apriadi, I. G. N., & Gunadnya, I. B. P. (2026). Production Forecasting Analysis of Cavendish Banana Harvest Using Exponential Smoothingto Product Sunpride and Bali Fresh in PT. Nusantara Segar Abadi Bali. Jurnal BETA (Biosistem Dan Teknik Pertanian), 12(2), 1–7. https://doi.org/10.24843/JBETA.2024.v12.i02.p04

Issue

Vol. 12 No. 2 (2024): September

Section

Articles

License

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

License Term

All articles published in Jurnal Beta (Biosistem dan Teknik Pertanian)  are open access and licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0). This means that anyone is free to:

  • Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format.

  • Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose, even commercially.

However, this is granted under the following conditions:

  • Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.

  • No additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.

By submitting an article to Jurnal Beta (Biosistem dan Teknik Pertanian), authors agree to the publication of their work under this open access license. The authors retain the copyright of their work, but grant Jurnal Beta (Biosistem dan Teknik Pertanian)  the right of first publication.

For more information about the CC BY 4.0 license, please visit the official website: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Most read articles by the same author(s)

1 2 3 4 > >>